Challenge Probability Simulator
We simulate your strategy running through a prop firm evaluation 10,000 times to calculate your exact mathematical probability of passing.
Your Strategy Stats
Monte Carlo Results
Complete Guide to Prop Firm Passing Probabilities
The Danger of High Risk Per Trade
The biggest mistake traders make is risking too much per trade (e.g., 2% or 3%) to try and pass the challenge quickly. If you have a perfectly profitable strategy (e.g., 50% win rate, 2:1 risk-reward) and you risk 2% per trade on an FTMO challenge (10% target, 10% max drawdown), our Monte Carlo simulator proves that you have a massive probability of hitting max drawdown before hitting your target, purely due to standard statistical variance (losing streaks).
Lower Your Risk to Pass
Lowering your risk per trade to 0.5% or 1% dramatically increases your mathematical probability of passing, even though it will take more total trades to achieve the goal. Prop firm trading is about surviving variance, not gambling on a hot streak.
What is Expected Value (Edge)?
Your edge (Expected Value) is the average amount your account is expected to grow or shrink on every single trade you take. If your edge is negative, it is mathematically impossible for you to pass a challenge over a large sample size. The formula is: Edge = (Win Rate % × Reward) - (Loss Rate % × Risk).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that predicts the probability of different outcomes by running thousands of random trials. In this calculator, it randomly generates thousands of trades based on your win rate to see how often you hit the profit target before hitting max drawdown.
What is the best risk per trade for a prop firm?
Mathematically, the optimal risk per trade to pass a standard 8% target / 10% drawdown challenge with a 50% win rate and 1:2 Risk/Reward is exactly 0.5% to 1.0% per trade. Anything higher exposes you to a high risk of ruin from a standard 5-trade losing streak.
Can I pass a challenge with a negative edge?
Yes, but only if you get extremely lucky over a very small sample size of trades (e.g. gambling 5% risk on one trade). However, over a large sample size, a negative edge guarantees you will blow the account.